Fundstrat Recap: Tom Lee Says Markets Are Rallying on Bad News

The latest full video on the official Fundstrat YouTube channel that features Tom Lee, "Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Markets Are Rallying on Bad News," was posted on the evening of November 9, 2026. It is a short CNBC panel clip (about 4 minutes 37 seconds) from a big up day in the markets, following the sharp sell-off of the week before. The host asks Tom Lee of Fundstrat what the rebound means, then brings in two other panelists introduced as Kevin Gordon of Schwab and Chris Harvey of Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.

This is an independent summary written by GNOUP. It is not affiliated with, sponsored by or endorsed by Fundstrat, CNBC, Schwab, Merrill, Bank of America or any of the speakers. The views, forecasts and predictions described below belong to the speakers, not to GNOUP. Nothing here is investment, financial or tax advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Forecasts can turn out to be wrong, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Please consult a licensed financial professional before making financial decisions.

Key points

These are the speakers' opinions and predictions as stated in the video. We have not independently checked the figures they mention. The transcript we used does not label who is speaking, so after Tom Lee's answers we describe the other panelists' views without saying which of them said what. The transcript also stops partway through the last answer.

• Lee's first encouraging sign: rallying on bad news. Lee said there was a flurry of bad news over the weekend, including news involving Nvidia and reports about Texas going after Elon Musk's companies, yet those stocks were rallying. He called it a good sign when markets rally on bad news. These are his descriptions of the news, not GNOUP's reporting.
• Lee's second sign: the VIX term structure. Lee pointed to the VIX term structure, which he described as the four-month VIX compared with the one-month VIX. He said it inverted the week before and had normalized that day, which he said is usually a sign of a bottom. In his words, he thinks this is "more proof that last week was the low."
• Sticking with his call. The host noted that Lee had said the market was set up to do well right before it fell sharply, and that people on social media questioned him. Lee said he is sticking with the view that the prior week was a big washout that sets up a bottom, and that he thinks markets are "a lot safer than people think." That is his forecast, and it may not play out.
• A more cautious view on the panel. Another panelist said the market may still be in "knife falling" territory and warned against reading too much into any single day of the cap-weighted index. That panelist said the more useful signal was underneath the surface: the equal-weighted S&P 500 outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500, and almost 60% of S&P members above their 200-day moving average by the end of the prior week. In that view, most of the stress was concentrated in highly leveraged bets within tech and the mega-cap AI trade, while the broader market stayed relatively positive alongside what the panelist called a strong economy and a strong jobs report.
• Banks as the "circulatory system." A third view on the panel was that financials were acting well. That panelist said strength in banks suggests deal activity is coming, that interest-rate margins are still there, and that the economy is mid-cycle and still far from peak profitability.
• Mid-cycle, not late-cycle. Asked why mid-cycle when others argue profits and semiconductors have peaked, that panelist said switching from expected rate cuts to actual hikes is a mid-cycle sign, noted that about 60% of the S&P had been in a bear market at one point a couple of weeks earlier, and said late cycle would mean earnings growth heading toward zero. The panelist said they expect double-digit earnings growth next year, called that a reasonable assumption rather than a sure thing, and put nominal GDP growth at about 6% or 7% this year, adding that 5% would be fine. The transcript ends during this answer.

What to watch

These are items the speakers raised, not findings by GNOUP.

• Whether last week really was the low. Lee's bottom call rests on the market shrugging off bad news and on the VIX term structure normalizing. Other analysts may read the same signals differently, and one panelist in this clip was more cautious.
• Market breadth versus the big tech names. The equal-weighted versus cap-weighted comparison and the share of stocks above their 200-day averages were offered as better signals than the headline index.
• Banks and financials. One panelist sees their strength as a sign of coming deal activity and a mid-cycle economy.
• Earnings and growth forecasts for next year. The double-digit earnings growth and GDP figures are one panelist's expectations, not certainties.
• Fundstrat's own promotions. The video description promotes Tom Lee's 2027 Outlook webinar on November 30 and a 30-day free trial of Fundstrat research. GNOUP has no connection to those offers and does not endorse them.

Watch the episode

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Markets Are Rallying on Bad News on YouTube (Fundstrat official channel, posted November 9, 2026, about 4:37)

Episode guide

The video's description does not list chapters, and the transcript we used had no time markers, so we are not able to give accurate timestamps. Rather than guess, here is the order in which the topics came up. Open the video on YouTube and use its own progress bar to jump around.

1. The host introduces the panel and asks Tom Lee what the big up day means after the prior week's drop.
2. Lee's two encouraging signs: rallying on bad news and the VIX term structure normalizing.
3. The host asks about pushback on social media; Lee sticks with his bottom call.
4. A more cautious panelist on "knife falling" territory, market breadth and stress in leveraged tech bets.
5. Financials as the market's "circulatory system" and the mid-cycle argument.
6. Mid-cycle versus late-cycle, earnings growth and GDP (the transcript cuts off during this answer).

About this summary

This recap was prepared from the video's title, description and an automatically generated transcript of the panel. The transcript does not identify speakers and was cut off near the end, and automatic transcripts can contain errors, so some names, numbers and phrases may differ from what was said. For the exact words, watch the video. Running time (about 4:37) came from YouTube's video metadata. We have not independently checked the claims made in the clip. This article is general information only. It is not investment, financial or tax advice, it does not recommend buying or selling any security or asset, and it is not a substitute for advice from a licensed financial professional.